UK GDP rises 0.4% as heatwave and World Cup lift spending
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The UK economy grew by 0.4% in the second quarter of 2026, with June GDP rising by 0.3%, as hot weather and the World Cup boosted consumer spending, hospitality, retail and advertising. The figures suggest the economy maintained a strong pace despite the Iran war, although economists expect growth to slow later in the year as higher energy and fuel costs pressure households and businesses.
GDP is estimated to be 1.2% higher than a year earlier, while output per person rose 0.4% in the quarter and 1.0% year-on-year. Combined with 0.6% growth in the first quarter, the first-half annualised growth rate was 2%, and Deutsche Bank said the UK could again lead the G7 growth table; the FTSE 100 opened slightly lower, down 0.1%.
- UK GDP rose 0.4% in the second quarter.
- Weather and the World Cup supported spending.
- Higher energy and fuel costs may slow growth.
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Gross domestic product, or GDP, is a broad measure of the value of goods and services produced across the UK. It is used to track whether the economy is expanding or contracting, though it does not show how evenly income or wealth is shared.
Consumer spending is a major part of the UK economy, so changes in activity at shops, restaurants, hotels and leisure venues can affect growth figures. Events such as major football tournaments, and periods of unusually warm weather, can shift spending towards hospitality, travel, food, drink and advertising.
Economists also look at GDP per person, which adjusts overall economic output for population growth and can give a different picture from the headline total. Energy and fuel prices matter because higher costs can reduce households’ spending power and increase operating costs for businesses.
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The case for
Supporters argue that the figures show meaningful economic resilience: growth remained solid despite the Iran war, and output per person also increased, suggesting improvement was not solely driven by population growth. Stronger spending in hospitality, retail and advertising may reflect households’ willingness to spend when conditions allow, while first-half growth puts the UK in contention to perform strongly among the G7.
The case against
Sceptics argue that the quarter’s result may overstate the economy’s underlying momentum because it was helped by temporary factors such as unusually hot weather and the World Cup. They contend that higher energy and fuel costs are likely to squeeze household budgets and business margins later in the year, so a short-lived consumer-spending boost should not be taken as proof of durable growth.
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Originally published by The Guardian as “UK economy grows by 0.4% in second quarter as some businesses helped by World Cup and hot weather – business live”.