Gartner has forecast that global semiconductor industry revenue will nearly double in 2026, reaching $1.6 trillion, up from $809 billion in 2025, with memory chips driving almost all of the growth. The surge is being fuelled by the AI infrastructure boom, as manufacturers such as Samsung, Micron and SK Hynix prioritise production of high-end memory for servers and GPUs, creating shortages of mainstream chips used in PCs and smartphones and pushing up consumer prices. Gartner expects this pattern to persist rather than follow the boom-and-bust cycles seen in previous tech downturns, meaning little relief is likely for buyers in the near term.

DRAM revenue is projected to grow by 246.6% and NAND flash by 371.9% in 2026, with memory overtaking non-memory chip revenue for the first time and expected to exceed $1 trillion by 2027. The smartphone market is forecast to shrink 15% this year as consumers baulk at higher prices, while chipmakers have locked in elevated prices through long-term supply deals with major customers, announced by Micron in June and by SK Hynix and Samsung in July. Gartner analyst Ben Lee said AI datacentres' share of semiconductor revenue is set to rise from 36.5% in 2026 to over 53% by 2030, and Samsung has warned the memory supply crunch could deepen and last through 2028, with overall semiconductor revenue projected to hit $1.9 trillion in 2027.