Ryanair has warned that European short-haul air fares could rise significantly next year if oil prices remain elevated, cautioning that some rival carriers with weaker fuel hedging may struggle to survive the coming winter. The Irish budget airline has trimmed its passenger target for the year to 31 March from 216 million to 214 million in an effort to limit its exposure to costly "unhedged winter oil" during the traditionally loss-making off-season, as jet fuel currently trades at $140 a barrel.

Ryanair expects the reduced winter schedule to cut its seasonal losses by €70m to €100m, and because it has already hedged 80% of its jet fuel at $67 a barrel, it still anticipates a profitable year overall, though below last year's record. Brent crude touched $97.04 a barrel this week, its highest since late July, amid renewed US-Iran tensions, before easing to just below $95. Ryanair still expects summer passenger numbers to grow more than 5%, from 138 million to 145 million, with fares drifting modestly lower between August and September, while rival Wizz Air reported a 25.9% jump in monthly passengers driven by expanded capacity.