China's carbon dioxide emissions fell by 1% following the outbreak of the US-Israeli war on Iran, as a sharp drop in oil consumption and continued growth in electric vehicle and public transport use cushioned the impact of the strait of Hormuz crisis. The findings, based on second-quarter data from China's National Bureau of Statistics analysed by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air for Carbon Brief, suggest the world's biggest greenhouse gas emitter may be approaching a genuine turning point in decarbonising its economy, with analysts predicting much of the lost oil demand may never return even if crude prices ease.

China cut oil imports by 32%, roughly a million barrels a day, helping stabilise global oil prices despite a 60% surge following US airstrikes in late February. About two-thirds of the import fall came from drawing down strategic stockpiles rather than reduced demand, though overall oil use still fell by 9%, and by 16% in transport, as electric cars, buses, trains and trucks took up the slack; in the first half of 2026, this EV shift displaced oil use equivalent to the UK's entire six-month consumption. Analysts noted this marked the first time China's emissions fell due to reduced oil use rather than lower coal consumption, with coal generation actually rising during the quarter, though experts believe the broader trend away from fossil fuels is strengthening.