Writing from a Nato conference in Warsaw, columnist Bob Seely reports that senior military, security and political figures fear Vladimir Putin is planning a serious "provocation" against a Nato member, most likely one of the Baltic states. Sources describe this as "a question of when, not if", warning that Putin—whose forces are reportedly losing 6,000 more troops in Ukraine each month than he can recruit—may be preparing an escalation that tests Nato's Article 5 mutual-defence commitment without triggering full-scale war.

The most alarming scenario floated is a "false flag" attack, in which Russia would stage an incident, potentially using drones near its Kaliningrad exclave, and falsely blame Ukraine to justify striking Nato territory, echoing suspicions that Putin ordered 1999 apartment bombings that killed over 300 people. An alternative, wargamed by German forces this year, involves Russia fabricating a "humanitarian crisis" in Kaliningrad to justify sending troops through Lithuania's Suwalki Gap; in that simulation, the US and Germany failed to respond, undermining Nato's collective defence principle. A third possibility raised is a "hybrid" campaign of cyberattacks, sabotage or assassinations, while the piece also criticises Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham over defence budget commitments.