Computer science and other AI-exposed majors are experiencing a sharp deterioration in early-career employment prospects since the release of ChatGPT in late 2022, according to a new US Census Bureau study. Graduates from the most AI-exposed fields—including computer science, mathematics, statistics, and some engineering disciplines—are facing employment and earnings declines comparable to those experienced by older Millennials who graduated during the Great Recession, despite this not being a broad economic downturn.

The study found that initial employment likelihood declined by five percentage points for the most AI-exposed decile of majors, whilst full-quarter initial earnings fell by 13 percent. Approximately half of this earnings decline stems from graduates shifting into lower-paying sectors such as retail and food service. Critically, this represents a targeted employment shock affecting specific fields rather than an economy-wide recession; graduates from less AI-exposed fields, including nursing and education, have not experienced comparable deterioration. Whilst the impacts tend to ease as graduates move further from graduation, previous recession research suggests these early-career setbacks can leave workers trailing behind their peers on long-term earnings.