Gartner has predicted that 55 per cent of enterprise VMware users will begin investigating alternative hybrid cloud platforms by 2029, more than double the 25 per cent currently doing so. This projection is significant because 2029 marks six years after Broadcom's acquisition of VMware, aligning with when many customers' three-year subscriptions—purchased before the deal closed—would expire, creating a natural opportunity for migration. The forecast reflects growing dissatisfaction among VMware customers with the vendor's commercial practices, cost increases, and support responsiveness.

Despite this exodus prediction, Gartner still rates VMware as a leader in both the Distributed Hybrid Infrastructure and Server Virtualization markets, alongside AWS, Nutanix, Microsoft and Oracle. However, the analyst firm has documented significant customer grievances: users report substantial cost increases following VMware's shift to per-core subscriptions and minimal negotiating flexibility. Migration remains challenging and slow, with Nutanix's CEO noting that several years will elapse before many customers are ready to move. Competing platforms also face criticism—Nutanix's pricing is complex, AWS charges 15–35 per cent premiums for on-premises zones, and Microsoft users must navigate fragmented management consoles. Gartner's updated server virtualisation quadrant includes new entrants such as HPE and Proxmox, signalling a fragmented competitive landscape.