SpaceX has told NASA it plans to retire Crew Dragon after supporting the International Space Station through 2030, and has advised private station developers that they cannot book Dragon flights. The shift threatens NASA’s ambition to build a commercial economy in low-Earth orbit, where private stations and research would rely on regular crew transport.

NASA funded $3.1 billion towards Dragon’s development and certification, but SpaceX has already flown more missions than its contract required. The company now earns most of its revenue from Starlink and has indicated that future growth will centre on Starlink and orbital data centres, while NASA is a small part of its potential market. Although Starship could carry far more people than Dragon, SpaceX is not currently pursuing crewed Earth-orbit flights with it, leaving no clear replacement for private station operators.