England’s big chances and France’s shots: how World Cup quarter-finalists’ stats line up
The Guardian has published a data-led preview of the 2026 World Cup quarter-finals, highlighting one statistical strength for each of the eight remaining teams. Drawing on Opta metrics, it names France, Spain, Argentina and England as the most likely, in that order, to reach the semi-finals, while arguing that every side has numbers working in its favour. The piece matters as a guide to how the last-eight ties might be decided by contrasting playing styles.
France stand out for their ball-carrying, with 33 carries ending in shots and nine players excelling at driving runs, including Dembélé, Doué, Mbappé and Olise. Morocco lead on sprint intensity, Spain on defensive solidity (1.49 expected goals conceded), and Belgium on high turnovers leading to shots. Norway boast the highest chance quality (0.17 xG per shot) through Erling Haaland, England have created the most big chances (23), holders Argentina show attacking variety with seven goals from counters, set pieces and penalties, and Switzerland move the ball fastest towards goal.
- Opta rates France, Spain, Argentina and England as semi-final favourites.
- England lead on big chances created, with 23.
- Each of the eight quarter-finalists has one standout statistical strength.