The Institute for Family Studies (IFS) has published a report warning that the United States could face population decline within the coming decades, potentially by the 2050s. Crucially, the report argues this is not because Americans have stopped wanting children — most say they aspire to larger families than they end up having. This matters because it reframes falling birth rates as a gap between desire and reality, rather than a straightforward decline in the wish to have children.

Americans still say they want roughly 2.4 children on average, yet actual fertility has dropped below 1.6 children per woman — one of the widest gaps between desired and actual family size in modern history. Lyman Stone, Director of the IFS Pronatalism Initiative and a co-author, links this shortfall to family formation, arguing that delayed or forgone marriage is the main reason people fall short of their goals. He said those who marry earlier almost always reach their desired family size, and pushed back on the idea that rising medical infertility is to blame, attributing the trend instead to Americans starting families later.