Economists are warning that a "super" El Niño weather cycle forming in 2026-27 could trigger a severe shock to global food prices that lasts into 2028, compounding inflation already driven higher by the Iran war. With world food prices at their highest level in three years, analysts say supply chains face "two shocks at once" — geopolitical disruption and extreme weather linked to global heating — raising the prospect of a renewed inflation shock that is worrying central banks and could keep interest rates elevated.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has confirmed warming Pacific conditions, with a 63% chance of sea surface temperatures exceeding 2C above normal later this year, potentially making the event more severe than past strong El Niños in 1981-82, 1996-97, 2015-16 and 2023-24. Goldman Sachs estimates the cycle could drive a 15.8% surge in global food commodity prices and lift eurozone food prices by 1.3%, though the full impact may not be realised until the second half of 2028 owing to crop planting and harvesting cycles and logistical constraints such as canal and river water levels. El Niño has historically hit harvests hard, with a severe 19th-century event contributing to famines that killed millions, including more than 6 million people in India in 1876-78, while parts of India have already received only half their normal rainfall.