# Abdul El-Sayed soars in Kalshi odds after Haley Stevens fallout 

- URL: https://talkfuse.com/story/abdul-el-sayed-soars-in-kalshi-odds-after-haley-stevens-fallout/
- Published: 2026-11-03T19:33:02+00:00
- Updated: 2026-11-03T23:46:37+00:00
- Original publisher: The Hill (publisher lean: Right)
- Original article: https://thehill.com/opinion/lindseys-lens/6193560-haley-stevens-rogers-endorsement-backfire/
- Topics: Americas, Elections, Government, Politics, World

## Key points

- El-Sayed’s Kalshi odds recovered from 68% to 78% after Stevens backed Rogers.
- Stevens’s switch exposed divisions among Michigan Democrats days before the vote.
- El-Sayed’s campaign reported raising more than $2.4 million that Sunday.

## Summary

Abdul El-Sayed’s chances of winning Michigan’s US Senate race rose to 78% on the Kalshi prediction market on 2 November, after briefly falling to 68% when Democratic congresswoman Haley Stevens endorsed his Republican opponent, Mike Rogers, the previous day. El-Sayed had been priced at about 76% before the endorsement. The subsequent rise took him above his previous late-October high, according to Kalshi. These figures reflect traders’ prices, which can change quickly; they do not establish how voters responded to Stevens’s decision.

Stevens narrowly lost the Democratic primary to El-Sayed in August and initially supported him. She switched to Rogers two days before polling day, after a dispute involving Israel and an advertisement by an outside group. Stevens said she had been told she was no longer welcome at a joint campaign event. Democratic leaders condemned her endorsement, while El-Sayed said he remained focused on voters’ concerns, including living costs. His campaign reported raising more than $2.4 million on the day Stevens backed Rogers, though the effect of the endorsement on the election remained uncertain.

## Coverage

- [The Hill: Abdul El-Sayed soars in Kalshi odds after Haley Stevens fallout ](https://thehill.com/opinion/lindseys-lens/6193560-haley-stevens-rogers-endorsement-backfire/)
- [Kalshi: Michigan Senate race: Abdul El-Sayed's odds rebound to all-time high after Stevens' endorsement of Mike Rogers](https://news.kalshi.com/p/michigan-senate-odds-abdul-el-sayed-s-odds-rebound-to-all-time-highs-after-stevens-endorsement-of-mi)
- [The Independent: Haley Stevens endorsement of Republican has been a financial windfall for Democrat Abdul El-Sayed](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/haley-stevens-abdul-el-sayed-election-fundraising-b3077768.html)

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Summarised by TalkFuse (https://talkfuse.com/). Quote the original publisher for the reporting and link this page for the summary and discussion.