The prospects of a swift end to the war between the US and Iran have receded further after renewed strikes and hardened rhetoric on both sides, with the conflict now entering its seventh month. The escalation follows the US announcement of a tighter economic blockade against Iran and its trading partners, intended to force Tehran back to the negotiating table and halt attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route that has been largely closed since fighting began in February. This matters because it signals that neither military pressure nor economic sanctions have so far broken the deadlock, leaving global shipping and energy markets exposed to continued disruption.

A Memorandum of Understanding signed by the two sides in June, which was meant to produce a permanent ceasefire and full agreement within 60 days, has now lapsed without resolution. Three experts consulted by the BBC broadly agree that neither side is close to capitulating: analysts note Washington still lacks clarity on its own strategic objectives, Tehran appears willing to absorb further economic pain rather than negotiate from weakness, and countries such as China and Russia are unlikely to honour unilateral US sanctions, blunting their impact. Iran retains leverage through its ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, while the US appears to be settling for a strategy of sustained blockade and periodic strikes rather than an imminent breakthrough.