# Analysis: Fossil-fuel CO2 emissions set to dip in 2026 as Iran conflict hits oil use

- URL: https://talkfuse.com/story/analysis-fossil-fuel-co2-emissions-set-to-dip-in-2026-as-iran-conflict-hits-oil-use/
- Published: 2026-11-10T01:01:00+00:00
- Updated: 2026-11-10T01:21:48+00:00
- Original publisher: Carbon Brief
- Original article: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-fossil-fuel-co2-emissions-set-to-dip-in-2026-as-iran-conflict-hits-oil-use
- Topics: Climate, Middle East, Science, World

## Key points

- Fossil fuel and cement emissions may fall 0.4% in 2026.
- Lower oil use is linked to the Iran conflict and Hormuz closure.
- Rising land-use emissions could push total CO2 to a record 43.3bn tonnes.

## Summary

Global fossil fuel and cement emissions are projected to dip by about 0.4% in 2026, as the Iran conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz reduce oil use. The fall is tentative and does not mean global emissions are on a sustained downward path.

The Global Carbon Project estimates fossil fuel and cement emissions at 38.2bn tonnes of CO2, with a range from a 1.5% fall to a 0.6% rise. A projected increase in emissions from land-use change, linked partly to peat fires and forest degradation in south-east Asia, would lift total emissions to a record 43.3bn tonnes, from 42.8bn in 2025. Solar, wind and electric vehicles offset around two-thirds of emissions that would otherwise result from rising energy demand, but the report says this is not yet enough to drive a sustained decline.

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Summarised by TalkFuse (https://talkfuse.com/). Quote the original publisher for the reporting and link this page for the summary and discussion.