# Analysts find looming launch crisis is “more severe” than anticipated

- URL: https://talkfuse.com/story/analysts-find-looming-launch-crisis-is-more-severe-than-anticipated/
- Published: 2026-10-30T16:12:59+00:00
- Updated: 2026-10-30T18:04:07+00:00
- Original publisher: Ars Technica
- Original article: https://arstechnica.com/space/2026/10/analysts-find-looming-launch-crisis-is-more-severe-than-anticipated/
- Topics: Celebrity, Entertainment, Space, Technology

## Key points

- About 150 launches could be missing by 2030.
- Including US military demand could double the shortfall.
- Starship and New Glenn may help, but timing is uncertain.

## Summary

A Quilty Space report finds that, outside China, rocket launch capacity is likely to fall well short of demand through 2030. The shortage could delay satellite programmes and government missions, and may persist until late in the 2030s.

The report estimates a shortfall of about 150 launches, potentially twice that if US military demand is included and SpaceX does not expand Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy operations. The crunch is expected to be most acute in 2028, driven by the loss of Russian rockets from Western markets, rising satellite demand and delays to new vehicles. Starship could add substantial capacity, but SpaceX has not been actively offering it for conventional commercial satellites; Blue Origin’s New Glenn launches could also ease the gap if its launch rate grows faster than forecast.

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Summarised by TalkFuse (https://talkfuse.com/). Quote the original publisher for the reporting and link this page for the summary and discussion.