Ars Live recap: When are the big rockets NASA desperately needs going to be ready?

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Ars Live recap: When are the big rockets NASA desperately needs going to be ready?

Ars Technica · 5 days ago

Ars Technica convened space industry experts to discuss the implications of Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket explosion in May, particularly for NASA's Artemis programme aimed at returning humans to the Moon. The discussion focused on whether Blue Origin's planned 9×4 variant of New Glenn—an upgraded version with nine first-stage engines and four upper-stage engines—could meet the company's targeted launch window of late 2027 or early 2028 to support crewed lunar missions.

Expert panellists expressed significant scepticism about Blue Origin's timeline, with industry veterans noting the company's historical pattern of missing deadlines and suggesting delays would extend into the 2030s. Given these concerns about Blue Origin's schedule, space industry experts recommended that NASA pivot its strategy to focus on SpaceX's Starship system instead, citing SpaceX's proven launch cadence, existing infrastructure capacity, and demonstrated ability to scale operations quickly. This pragmatic approach, they argued, would provide a more reliable pathway for achieving a crewed Moon landing within the decade.

  • Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket explosion creates uncertainty over its ability to support NASA's Artemis lunar missions
  • Experts question the company's late 2027–early 2028 timeline for its upgraded 9×4 variant, expecting delays into the 2030s
  • Industry consensus favours prioritising SpaceX's Starship as a more proven, ready-to-scale alternative for crewed Moon landings

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