New projections show Australia’s population will grow more slowly than previously forecast, with deaths expected to outnumber births by the 2060s. Natural increase would then cease to drive population growth, leaving net migration as the country’s only source of expansion and increasing its importance for workforce skills.

Population is projected to reach 39.3 million by 2065–66, while annual growth averages 0.9 per cent, down from the previous 1.1 per cent estimate. Fertility is forecast to fall from 1.48 to 1.34 babies per woman; the under-20 population will rise only 10.4 per cent, while the number aged 85 and over is expected to triple. Ageing is projected to drive one-third of additional health spending, with government payments rising to 27.7 per cent of GDP.