Australia is projected to undergo a major demographic shift, with deaths expected to exceed births by the 2060s as fertility declines and the population ages. Net migration would then become the country’s only source of population growth, increasing its importance for workforce skills and overall population expansion.

The fertility rate is forecast to fall from 1.48 to 1.34 babies per woman, while population growth is expected to slow to 0.9% annually and reach 39.3 million by 2065–66. The number of people aged 85 and over is projected to triple, increasing demand for healthcare, aged care and disability services; ageing alone is expected to drive one-third of additional health spending, with government payments rising to 27.7% of GDP.