Badenoch’s rightward shift risks losing the Tory voters needed to regain power
Polly Toynbee argues that Kemi Badenoch’s effort to win back Reform UK voters by moving the Conservatives further right risks alienating the moderate voters the party needs to regain. She says the party has little chance of returning to power without winning back the “blue wall” across southern England, and that its conference presents little room for internal disagreement.
The article says the Conservatives are polling at 19%, four points below their result at the last election, while Badenoch’s net rating is minus 15. It criticises proposals including free childcare for families earning over £100,000, cuts to some benefits, and opposition to closer EU ties; the childcare policy is estimated to cost £700 million, while the article cites a million young people not in education, employment or training.
- Badenoch’s rightward strategy could push moderate voters further from the Conservatives.
- The party is polling at 19%, below its last election result.
- The article argues winning back the blue wall is vital to a Tory majority.
New here? Start with this
Kemi Badenoch became Conservative leader following the party's election loss. The Conservatives are now attempting to rebuild their support after falling behind in polls compared to their election performance.
The party faces a strategic tension between two groups of lost voters. Some switched to Reform UK whilst others in moderate southern constituencies, sometimes called the "blue wall", moved away from the party. Attempting to win back the former risks alienating the latter, whom the party needs to recover.
Without successfully winning back moderate voters, the Conservatives face a difficult path to regaining power. Current polling suggests the party has considerable ground to make up.
Both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Moving rightward allows the Conservatives to consolidate their core voter base and recapture votes lost to Reform UK, which has fractured the right-wing vote and prevented electoral success. A clear, distinctive conservative platform on immigration, fiscal discipline, and national sovereignty resonates with their natural constituency; attempting to appeal to every demographic risks standing for nothing, and the party's recent electoral failure suggests that a centrist, diffident approach no longer wins elections.
The case against
The Conservatives cannot return to power without winning back moderate southern voters in the blue wall, who have either defected to the Liberal Democrats or are persuadable swing voters; chasing Reform UK voters whilst alienating this crucial demographic is arithmetically futile. The party's polling already lags behind its last election result, and attempting to outflank Reform on the right whilst simultaneously recapturing moderates solves an impossible puzzle, leaving the Tories stuck without a viable path to majority government.
Art Business Culture Elections Geopolitics Politics Travel
Read the full article at the source →
Originally published by The Guardian as “Badenoch is trying to match Farage step for step – but it’s a dance of death for the Tories | Polly Toynbee”.