Speculation is mounting over who Andy Burnham will appoint as chancellor when he takes over from Keir Starmer, with home secretary Shabana Mahmood reported to have overtaken energy secretary Ed Miliband as the frontrunner. Businesses had feared Miliband, seen as more left-leaning and firmly committed to net zero targets, but many are equally unsettled by Mahmood, who has no track record in economic or business-facing government roles, leaving industry leaders uncertain how she would run the Treasury.

Miliband's strong backing for the UK's decarbonisation goals, viewed by climate scientists as vital but criticised by some as a drag on job creation, had worried manufacturers, one of whom said they were relieved Mahmood was now favourite. However, insiders note Mahmood has held no recorded meetings with individual businesses during her time as home secretary, prompting one lobbyist to call her "probably not the worst" but to voice a preference for someone "more dynamic and more into business". This follows a difficult first two years for outgoing chancellor Rachel Reeves, including backlash over a £25bn rise in employers' national insurance contributions, meaning firms are anxious to avoid similar friction under Burnham, whose backroom team beyond chief of staff James Purnell remains largely unknown.