Voter opposition to Reform is hardening, with YouGov analysis showing the public increasingly willing to vote tactically against Nigel Farage's party. This trend has accelerated since Andy Burnham replaced Keir Starmer as Prime Minister, and comes amid controversies surrounding Reform's finances, including record donations of £72 million from crypto-billionaires. The data suggests a significant shift in electoral behaviour, with voters prioritising blocking Reform over party loyalty.

In head-to-head contests, Reform underperforms substantially against established parties: Labour leads by 15 points (41 per cent to 26 per cent), whilst the Conservatives lead by a similar margin (35 per cent to 20 per cent), with both gaps widening since February. Reform also trails the Liberal Democrats and Greens. Latest polling shows Labour at 23 per cent, whilst the Conservatives and Reform are tied at 21 per cent—Reform's lowest score since January 2025. Speculation continues that Burnham may call a snap election to secure his own mandate, though polling indicates this would likely result in a Commons deadlock requiring a coalition arrangement.