# Bombshell shift in race to replace Nancy Pelosi as new odds drop on Election Day

- URL: https://talkfuse.com/story/bombshell-shift-in-race-to-replace-nancy-pelosi-as-new-odds-drop-on-election-day/
- Published: 2026-11-04T03:23:08+00:00
- Updated: 2026-11-06T06:13:11+00:00
- Original publisher: New York Post (publisher lean: Right)
- Original article: https://nypost.com/2026/11/03/us-news/scott-wiener-poised-to-win-nancy-pelosis-former-house-seat/
- Topics: Elections, Politics, World

## Key points

- Prediction markets swung towards Scott Wiener in the race to succeed Nancy Pelosi.
- Pelosi endorsed Connie Chan, who trails Wiener in a recent poll.
- The contest pits establishment and progressive Democratic factions against each other.

## Summary

Prediction markets shifted sharply in favour of California state Senator Scott Wiener in the contest to replace Nancy Pelosi in the US House, despite Pelosi backing San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan. The race matters as the first major contest over Pelosi’s San Francisco seat since she won it in 1987, and tests how much influence her endorsement carries.

Kalshi put Wiener’s chances as high as 94% on Tuesday evening, up from 82% at noon; another market listed him at 83% and Chan at 19%. A University of Southern California poll had Wiener ahead 47% to 41%, with 9% undecided, though the 4.6-point margin of error means the candidates’ support was statistically close. The Democrats broadly agree on national issues but represent different party factions: Wiener is seen as more establishment, while Chan is backed by unions and progressive activists.

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Summarised by TalkFuse (https://talkfuse.com/). Quote the original publisher for the reporting and link this page for the summary and discussion.