Disney's live-action remake of "Moana" is heading into its opening weekend amid uncertain box office projections, with tracking services divided over whether it will make a strong start or flounder. Estimates range from a healthy $60 million–$65 million across 3,875 North American cinemas to a far weaker $35 million–$40 million, the latter of which would be a serious disappointment given the film's $250 million production budget, before global marketing costs are even factored in. The outcome matters because it will indicate whether Disney's remake strategy can withstand reaching for one of its more recent animated hits.

Directed by Thomas Kail and starring newcomer Catherine Laga'aia with Dwayne Johnson reprising the demigod Maui, the remake arrives a decade after the 2016 original and just two years after the sequel grossed over $1 billion worldwide. Overseas takings, projected at $70 million–$75 million, could prove decisive. Domestically, "Moana" risks joining underperformers such as "Dumbo" and "Snow White," in contrast to remakes like "Lilo & Stitch," "The Lion King" and "Beauty and the Beast," which all opened above $100 million. Also opening this weekend are horror sequel "Evil Dead Burn" ($15 million–$20 million) and A24's comedy "The Invite" ($4 million–$5 million).