# Oil tops OBR’s severe shock forecast as UK growth outlook weakens

- URL: https://talkfuse.com/story/budget-watchdogs-worst-case-scenario-for-oil-has-already-been-reached/
- Published: 2026-10-29T23:53:45+00:00
- Updated: 2026-10-30T00:12:44+00:00
- Original publisher: Daily Mail (publisher lean: Right)
- Original article: https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-16250999/Budget-watchdogs-worst-case-scenario-oil-reached.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490
- Topics: World

## Key points

- Oil has already exceeded the OBR’s severe-shock forecast.
- UK growth is projected at 1 per cent in 2027.
- Inflation and energy costs are expected to weigh on households.

## Summary

Brent crude rose above $115 a barrel, exceeding the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) severe-shock forecast for next year. The rise has led the watchdog to lower its UK growth outlook, while possible renewed US military action against Iran could push oil prices higher still.

The OBR now expects the economy to grow by 1 per cent in 2027, around half a percentage point less than its March forecast. It projects inflation will peak at 3.75 per cent early next year and remain about 1.5 percentage points higher across 2027 than previously expected; households are forecast to see no earnings growth in 2027 or 2028. The OBR said many factors affecting the UK economy come from outside the country.

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Summarised by TalkFuse (https://talkfuse.com/). Quote the original publisher for the reporting and link this page for the summary and discussion.