UK consumer confidence rose sharply in July, helped by expectations that Andy Burnham could become prime minister, England’s World Cup progress and sunny weather, according to GfK. The improvement matters because confidence can influence household spending, but it remains far below pre-Brexit levels and could prove fragile amid weak growth and cost-of-living pressures.

GfK’s headline index climbed six points to -17, its highest reading since January and its largest monthly rise since November 2023; views of the economy over the next year rose eight points and views of the previous year improved by 10. Personal-finance expectations increased by only two points, while renewed Middle East conflict pushed Brent crude to $100 a barrel and could lift inflation above forecasts that had expected it to peak near 4% in November.