Andy Burnham, on the brink of becoming Prime Minister after securing 322 nominations from Labour MPs to replace Sir Keir Starmer, has been warned he could face an early confrontation with Russia within weeks of taking office. John Bew, a former chief foreign affairs adviser who served under Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer, said Mr Burnham would need to prioritise international affairs from the outset, despite signs that he would prefer to concentrate on domestic policy.

Mr Bew judged there was a "high likelihood" of Vladimir Putin making an aggressive move as Russia's campaign against Ukraine wanes, potentially a "hybrid attack" combining physical and cyber warfare against a Nato or Baltic state. The warning follows US claims last week that the Kremlin is planning an armed incursion into Poland to test Nato's response, possibly targeting infrastructure with missiles and drones. Sources close to Polish President Karol Nawrocki said Washington had been alerting Warsaw for some time, with analysts suggesting the aim is to provoke a crisis that pressures Western nations into dropping their support for Ukraine.