United Launch Alliance (ULA) is preparing to resume Vulcan rocket launches, but the article questions whether persistent financial pressures could finally push its owners, Boeing and Lockheed Martin, to sell the joint venture. Unlike rivals such as SpaceX, Blue Origin and Rocket Lab, which have diversified into satellites, broadband, manufacturing and other services to offset the low margins of launch, ULA has remained a pure launch provider without a reusable rocket, leaving it increasingly exposed as competition erodes its once-dominant position.

ULA was formed in 2006 when Boeing and Lockheed merged their struggling Delta and Atlas rocket programmes into a 50-50 venture, effectively eliminating US launch competition and securing lucrative sole-source government contracts worth hundreds of millions of dollars annually for each parent. That changed after SpaceX sued the US Air Force in 2014 for the right to compete for military launches, won eligibility in 2015, and secured its first major military contract in 2016 following the first successful landing of a reusable Falcon 9 booster. ULA's response, the new Vulcan rocket developed around the same time, was not designed for reusability, and the company has since lost significant market share; by comparison, SpaceX derives only about 8% of its $12.5 billion first-half revenue from launch services, while Rocket Lab earned roughly a quarter of its $434 million first-half revenue from launches, underscoring how launch alone is now a thin-margin business.