Oil exports through Hormuz recover to pre-war levels as supply routes shift
Crude oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to pre-war levels as producers and shipping companies have developed alternative routes, including pipeline transport and ship-to-ship transfers. At least 16.5 million barrels per day left the region in September—matching pre-war averages—compared with just 10.5 million bpd in March during the conflict's opening weeks. About 40 per cent of crude now bypasses the strait entirely through Saudi and Emirati pipelines, up from just 17 per cent before the war.
However, refined products such as diesel remain severely constrained, with only 677,000 bpd being transported compared to 3.6 million bpd pre-conflict. This has pushed UK diesel prices to an all-time high of 199.18p per litre, affecting businesses and households. Despite market resilience, shipping remains at risk, with three tankers hit by projectiles on Tuesday, and analysts warn that higher operational costs mask underlying security vulnerabilities.
- Crude oil exports recover to pre-war levels via pipeline and tanker alternatives.
- Refined fuel remains scarce, pushing UK diesel to record high prices.
- Shipping risks persist despite market workarounds and ongoing military presence.
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The Strait of Hormuz is a key shipping channel between the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea through which roughly a third of the world's traded crude oil normally passes. When a major conflict erupted in the region, this vital route was severely disrupted, with oil exports falling sharply in the opening weeks. This threatened global energy supplies and pushed fuel prices higher worldwide.
Producers and shipping companies have since established alternative routes around the disrupted strait, including new pipelines operated by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, along with ship-to-ship transfer operations. Crude oil exports have now recovered to pre-war levels of around 16.5 million barrels per day.
However, the recovery remains incomplete. Refined products such as diesel are still severely constrained, which has pushed UK fuel prices to record levels and affected businesses and households. Ships in the region continue to face security threats, meaning that long-term stability of shipping through the strait remains uncertain.
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Originally published by The Guardian as “Crude oil exports from strait of Hormuz largely return to pre-war levels”.