Diesel prices are set to reach record highs today as geopolitical tensions and supply chain issues combine. The price has already hit 198.89p per litre and is expected to break the 2022 record of 199.09p shortly, with the £2 barrier likely to be breached within days. The surge reflects ongoing conflict in the Middle East, with Iran having closed the Strait of Hormuz—through which one-fifth of the world's oil supplies flow—following attacks by the US and Israel on 28 February. Further pressure could come if President Trump implements a proposed 90-day ban on US diesel exports, which would particularly affect the UK, a net importer reliant on American supplies.

The price hikes have intensified calls on the UK government to freeze or abandon a planned 5p fuel duty increase scheduled for January. Diesel powers approximately one-third of passenger cars and 38 per cent of all vehicles including commercial lorries and vans (16 million vehicles), making widespread impacts on consumers and businesses likely. Emergency fuel stockpiles have fallen to just 42 days' worth following recent refinery closures, including at Grangemouth in Scotland, heightening concerns about supply resilience. The current fuel duty of 52.95p per litre raised £24 billion for the Treasury last year, and opposition parties across the Commons are urging the Chancellor to extend the freeze beyond its current end-of-year expiration to ease cost-of-living pressures.