# Dramatic shift in Election Day odds changes everything in LA mayor’s race as candidate surges

- URL: https://talkfuse.com/story/dramatic-shift-in-election-day-odds-changes-everything-in-la-mayors-race-as-candidate-surges/
- Published: 2026-11-04T00:53:55+00:00
- Updated: 2026-11-06T07:40:53+00:00
- Original publisher: New York Post (publisher lean: Right)
- Original article: https://nypost.com/2026/11/03/us-news/election-day-odds-shift-in-karen-bass-favor-in-la-mayors-race/
- Topics: Elections, Politics, World

## Key points

- Bass’s Kalshi odds rose from 57.6% to 79% in three and a half hours.
- Late-October polling had Bass and Raman tied at 40%.
- The market shift does not determine the election result.

## Summary

Karen Bass’s market-implied chance of keeping the Los Angeles mayoralty rose sharply on Election Day, despite late-October polling showing a tied race. The shift drew attention because turnout patterns could influence the close contest, but the figures do not show what caused the surge or establish who will win.

On Kalshi, Bass’s odds climbed from 57.6% to 79% between 1 p.m. and 4:30 p.m., a rise of more than 21 percentage points. Bass and Socialist challenger Nithya Raman each polled at 40%, with 20% undecided; turnout in liberal areas could favour Raman, while stronger participation among older, establishment voters could benefit Bass. Vote centres opened at 7 a.m. and were due to close at 8 p.m. PST, with a definitive result potentially taking days or weeks.

---
Summarised by TalkFuse (https://talkfuse.com/). Quote the original publisher for the reporting and link this page for the summary and discussion.