Variety's latest Emmy predictions rank the contenders for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series ahead of final voting, highlighting a field split between newcomers and long-overlooked veterans. The category features five nominees, including two comedy stalwarts, Steve Carell and Martin Short, who have amassed numerous nominations between them but have never won an acting Emmy, alongside Matthew Rhys, a former drama winner making a strong showing with his Apple TV comedy submission.

The nominees are Yahya Abdul-Mateen II for the cancelled "Wonder Man", Steve Carell for "Rooster", Matthew Rhys for "Widow's Bay", Jason Segel for "Shrinking" and Martin Short for "Only Murders in the Building". Carell has 11 nominations without a win, while Short has been nominated repeatedly without success and is now the sole representative of his show's trio after Steve Martin and Selena Gomez missed out. Rhys, who won a drama Emmy in 2018 for "The Americans", is considered a strong contender with three nominations this season. Final Emmy voting takes place from 17-26 August, with the ceremony airing on NBC on 14 September.