European intelligence chiefs have warned that Russia could significantly escalate its campaign against NATO within months, potentially through drone or missile strikes, sabotage, or even a limited military incursion onto alliance territory. The assessment reflects growing concern that Moscow intends to deliberately test NATO's resolve and mutual-defence commitment, with such action aimed at destabilising the alliance and weakening support for Ukraine. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and French President Emmanuel Macron have endorsed these warnings, with Tusk describing intelligence assessments suggesting possible attacks in the coming months.

Senior officials including Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech Republic's BIS security service, have outlined potential Russian actions ranging from limited incursions and false-flag provocations to widespread influence campaigns, with the timeframe estimated at "months, not years." The warning comes amid intensifying Russia-Ukraine hostilities, with both nations escalating long-range attacks. However, not all European intelligence chiefs agree on the imminence of a direct NATO attack; officials from Baltic states bordering Russia, despite long warning of Kremlin threats, have urged caution and questioned whether Russian preparations signal military action or merely an attempt to destabilise Western societies.