FlightAware sues Kalshi over flight cancellation prediction markets
FlightAware, the real-time flight-tracking service, has filed a lawsuit against prediction market platform Kalshi, accusing it of using FlightAware's data and branding without permission to run betting markets on US flight cancellations. Kalshi launched markets allowing users to bet on the number of flights cancelled nationally or at specific airports roughly a month ago, and FlightAware says it only learned of this through media coverage rather than any direct notice from Kalshi. The case matters because it raises fresh questions about how prediction markets source and license the data underpinning their bets, and about the broader safety risks such markets could pose if they incentivise interference with real-world events.
FlightAware's lawsuit claims Kalshi continued displaying its data and branding even after being asked to stop, and that it was never told its data would be used to settle betting outcomes. The company is seeking a jury trial but has not stated how much in damages it is pursuing. The dispute follows other controversies around prediction markets, including a Polymarket user who won $400,000 betting on Nicolás Maduro's removal from power hours before it happened, and allegations that a White House teleprompter operator profited from advance knowledge of presidential speeches on Kalshi; FlightAware argues similar exploitation could endanger travellers and airport staff.
- FlightAware sues Kalshi over unauthorised use of flight data for betting markets.
- Kalshi lets users bet on US flight cancellation numbers since around July 2026.
- FlightAware seeks a jury trial; damages amount not specified.
Both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
FlightAware's advocates would argue that its brand and flight-status data represent years of investment in building a trusted, accurate tracking service, and that a third party building a betting product on top of that name and data without a licence or consent undermines the value of that work. They would say that prediction markets referencing 'FlightAware' data risk consumer confusion about whether FlightAware endorses or backs the accuracy of the bets, and that companies should not be able to commercially exploit another firm's proprietary data and reputation for free simply because the underlying flights are public events.
The case against
Kalshi's defenders would argue that flight delays and cancellations are publicly observable facts, not FlightAware's exclusive property, and that referencing a well-known tracker by name for clarity is a far cry from misappropriating protected data. They would frame prediction markets on real-world events as a legitimate and increasingly popular financial product, arguing that innovation in this space serves genuine public interest in forecasting and risk transfer, and that expansive claims over factual, publicly available information could unduly limit competition and free expression about matters of public record.