German spy chief warns Russian covert operations could trigger violent conflict
Germany’s foreign intelligence chief, Martin Jaeger, has warned parliament that Russian hybrid operations are escalating and could draw Germany into violent conflict. He said Moscow’s undeclared campaign poses a direct threat as Germany supports Ukraine and works to strengthen its military.
Jaeger cited an attempted drone attack involving explosives at Leipzig airport in August, where Russian agents are the prime suspects; Russia denies conducting a hybrid campaign. He said there was no indication of plans for a major Russian attack on a NATO member, though lower-level military activity could occur, particularly in the Baltic states. Domestic intelligence chief Sinan Selen said Russian operations include sabotage and assassinations, with defence industry and military infrastructure targeted.
- Germany’s intelligence chief says Russian hybrid operations are escalating.
- Russian agents are suspected in an attempted explosives drone attack at Leipzig airport.
- Officials see no sign of a major attack on a NATO member.
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Russia has for years conducted what intelligence services call 'hybrid operations' – undeclared campaigns of sabotage, cyberattacks and espionage designed to destabilise other countries. These operate in a grey zone between peace and war, presenting countries with a dilemma about how to respond.
Germany has become particularly vulnerable to such tactics because it provides military aid and weapons to Ukraine in its war against Russia. Although Germany is not formally at war with Russia, it is openly supporting Russia's enemy, making it a natural target for Russian retaliation.
German intelligence officials now worry that Russia may escalate these covert operations into more direct attacks on German military and defence targets. This concern is particularly acute in the Baltic states, which border Russia and are NATO members, because any major escalation there could draw the entire Western alliance into a wider conflict.
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The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
German intelligence agencies bring professional expertise and access to classified information; the convergence of warnings from both foreign and domestic intelligence officials reflects serious assessment based on specific evidence, including the documented drone attack at Leipzig. Russia's established pattern of hybrid operations in Ukraine and the Baltic states, combined with its clear strategic interest in disrupting German support for Ukraine, suggests this represents a genuine escalating threat requiring serious response.
The case against
Intelligence agencies operate within institutional contexts that can amplify threat perceptions, and individual incidents can be misinterpreted or misattributed to foreign powers; the intelligence chief's own statement that there is no indication of plans for a major Russian attack on NATO suggests the immediate danger may be overstated. Before substantially escalating military responses, it is reasonable to demand clear, independently verifiable evidence rather than relying solely on classified briefings, and Russia's categorical denials deserve consideration within a balanced assessment.
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Originally published by Daily Mail as “Germany is at risk of being drawn into violent conflict with Russia due to Putin’s hybrid ‘shadow war’, Berlin’s intelligence chief warns”.