The long-held belief that going first in a penalty shootout confers an advantage is being questioned after all four shootouts at the 2026 World Cup were won by the team taking penalties second. The article, by Opta Analyst, examines whether this reflects a genuine edge or merely a statistical quirk, noting that 13 of the past 15 World Cup shootouts (86.7%) have been won by the side going second — a striking reversal of the traditional consensus that striking first applies scoreboard pressure.

However, a wider look at the data undercuts the idea of a real advantage. Across all 39 World Cup shootouts the split is only 56.4% in favour of going second, and earlier tournaments actually favoured the team going first, while European Championship shootouts sit at roughly 48% and the European Cup even suggests an advantage to going first (38.1% for the second team). The League Cup, with the largest sample of 207 shootouts, returns an almost exact 50-50 (50.2%). The article suggests confirmation bias or a placebo effect may be at play, adding that at this World Cup only Egypt — possibly influenced by Mohamed Salah — chose to go second, with the three captains who opted to go first all ending up on the losing side.