An economic analysis of the government's own forecasts has found that expanding Heathrow airport with a third runway would shift thousands of aviation jobs away from other UK regions rather than creating new employment nationally. The findings, drawn from a Department for Transport paper published last month, suggest airports across England and Wales would lose millions of passengers if the expansion goes ahead, undermining ministers' claims that the project would deliver broad-based economic benefits. The report lands just over a week after Andy Burnham became prime minister, having previously criticised the concentration of infrastructure spending in southern England and pledged to rebalance investment through a "No 10 North" agenda.

Birmingham airport alone is projected to lose 7.5 million passengers a year by 2050, equating to around 9,500 jobs lost at the airport and in its supply chain, while the West Midlands as a whole stands to lose almost 10,000 jobs. The New Economics Foundation calculated that by 2050, some 15,200 regional aviation jobs and 6,400 jobs at other London and south-east airports would be diverted to Heathrow instead. The DfT's own modelling also shows the overall GDP boost from expansion would be as little as 0.05% a year, with a peer reviewer warning it would be wrong to claim the gains would be broadly distributed across regions. The government disputed the analysis, insisting expansion would generate more than 60,000 local jobs and benefits felt across the UK, including 40% of a projected £2.6bn economic boost.