# OBR forecasts stagnant UK earnings amid tax and conflict pressures

- URL: https://talkfuse.com/story/household-incomes-set-for-another-grim-squeeze-as-taxes-and-middle-east-crisis-add-to-lost-decade-obr-warns/
- Published: 2026-10-28T16:30:00+00:00
- Updated: 2026-10-28T16:53:35+00:00
- Original publisher: Daily Mail (publisher lean: Right)
- Original article: https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-16246449/Household-incomes-set-grim-squeeze-taxes-Middle-East-crisis-add-lost-decade-OBR-warns.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490
- Topics: Business, Companies, Middle East, World

## Key points

- The OBR forecasts no real earnings growth in 2027 and 2028.
- Disposable income per person has barely grown since the financial crisis.
- Frozen tax thresholds and higher prices are adding pressure.

## Summary

The OBR warns that UK households face another period of weak income growth, with higher taxes and the effects of the Middle East conflict adding to long-running pressure on living standards. Its forecasts suggest real earnings will stop growing in 2027 and 2028, while household disposable income per person is expected to remain close to its pre-pandemic level a decade after the pandemic began.

The OBR expects real earnings growth to recover to 0.5% a year by 2030, partly as energy prices ease. But it says employers are likely to pass on higher National Insurance costs to workers, while inflation and frozen income tax thresholds will weigh on disposable incomes. Growth in real household disposable income per person averaged just 0.25% a year over the decade to 2025-26; by 2029-30, the OBR forecasts an average of less than 0.1% over the preceding decade.

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Summarised by TalkFuse (https://talkfuse.com/). Quote the original publisher for the reporting and link this page for the summary and discussion.