England face an exceptionally difficult task against Spain, whose possession-based style and defensive record make them almost impossible to beat through conventional football. The data and Spain’s recent defeats suggest England should instead embrace a more direct, physical approach, using crosses and set pieces to create disorder in the penalty area.

Spain conceded only one goal during their World Cup-winning campaign and allowed very few high-quality chances. Their most dangerous concessions came from deliveries into the box: Scotland and Colombia both scored from crosses, while all four of Spain’s tournament big chances allowed were headers from wide areas; even their highest-value shots often followed corners or crosses.