A Gulf system could end the Atlantic season’s hurricane drought
The Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually quiet, and a system in the western Gulf of Mexico could soon become its first tropical storm and possibly a hurricane. That would be notable because no hurricane has formed this late in the season in the modern record, which began around the Second World War.
The system could be named Isaias and may strengthen over Gulf waters measuring 28–30°C, though dry air and wind shear could limit its development. Forecasts suggest landfall between south-eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Friday or Saturday; heavy rain is expected, while wind and storm-surge risks depend on how strong it becomes. A strengthening El Niño has contributed to unusually high wind shear and low tropical activity this year.
- The Atlantic season has yet to produce a hurricane.
- A Gulf system could become Isaias and strengthen.
- Landfall is forecast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.
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The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June through November and is normally an active period that produces numerous tropical storms and hurricanes across the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and eastern United States. This year has been remarkably quiet, with far fewer storms forming than is typical. This unusual lack of activity is striking when compared to the patterns of recent decades.
A system now developing in the Gulf of Mexico could break this quiet spell by becoming a tropical storm or hurricane, which would be significant because of its late-season timing. If it reaches hurricane strength, it would mark the latest hurricane formation in the modern Atlantic record, which dates back to approximately the Second World War. How strong the system becomes will depend on factors including water temperature and atmospheric conditions.
The quiet this year is partly explained by an El Niño weather pattern forming in the Pacific Ocean, a phenomenon that affects conditions worldwide. El Niño typically creates atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic that suppress hurricane formation by increasing disruptive wind patterns. These effects have been particularly pronounced this year, making tropical storms relatively rare across the Atlantic basin.
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Originally published by Ars Technica as “It looks like the Atlantic storm season may finally produce a hurricane”.