An energy consultant has warned that Britain will need "luck rather than judgment" to keep the lights on this winter, as a combination of Net Zero policies, ageing infrastructure and looming European energy shocks leave the UK unusually exposed. Kathryn Porter, an adviser to the All-Party Parliamentary Group for Energy Studies, said the shift towards wind and solar power, alongside power station closures, means Britain now relies on electricity imports and cannot meet its own demand when wind generation is low, raising the risk of higher prices or even blackouts.

The warning comes as Ofgem confirmed the energy price cap will rise by £60 to £1,723 in October, adding further pressure on household budgets. Compounding the risk are record-low European gas reserves, the Iran war, and a Norwegian water shortage threatening hydro-electric exports, with Norwegian politicians already pushing for export controls. A National Audit Office report also warned that delays to a £70billion national grid upgrade could add £1.9billion a year to bills, while whistleblowers at the National Energy System Operator claimed the grid had breached safety limits in June, with one engineer calling power cuts a "mathematical certainty". Shadow energy minister Andrew Bowie urged the government to resume North Sea drilling, including approving the Jackdaw gas field, though a decision is reportedly being delayed until after a by-election.