‘It’ll be more luck than judgment if lights are on this winter’: Stark warning from industry expert as hard-pressed families brace for energy bill surge
An energy consultant has warned that Britain will need "luck rather than judgment" to keep the lights on this winter, as a combination of Net Zero policies, ageing infrastructure and looming European energy shocks leave the UK unusually exposed. Kathryn Porter, an adviser to the All-Party Parliamentary Group for Energy Studies, said the shift towards wind and solar power, alongside power station closures, means Britain now relies on electricity imports and cannot meet its own demand when wind generation is low, raising the risk of higher prices or even blackouts.
The warning comes as Ofgem confirmed the energy price cap will rise by £60 to £1,723 in October, adding further pressure on household budgets. Compounding the risk are record-low European gas reserves, the Iran war, and a Norwegian water shortage threatening hydro-electric exports, with Norwegian politicians already pushing for export controls. A National Audit Office report also warned that delays to a £70billion national grid upgrade could add £1.9billion a year to bills, while whistleblowers at the National Energy System Operator claimed the grid had breached safety limits in June, with one engineer calling power cuts a "mathematical certainty". Shadow energy minister Andrew Bowie urged the government to resume North Sea drilling, including approving the Jackdaw gas field, though a decision is reportedly being delayed until after a by-election.
- Expert warns UK risks blackouts this winter without "luck"
- Energy price cap rising £60 to £1,723 from October
- Grid delays and reliance on imports fuel security concerns
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Britain's electricity system has shifted heavily towards wind and solar power in recent years, alongside the closure of older gas, coal and nuclear power stations. Because wind and solar output varies with the weather, the UK increasingly relies on importing electricity from other countries, particularly when wind generation is low, which leaves supply more vulnerable during cold, still winter periods.
At the same time, several other pressures are converging this winter. European gas storage levels are unusually low, tensions from the Iran conflict have added uncertainty to energy markets, and a shortage of water in Norway's reservoirs is threatening the hydro-electric power the UK often imports from there. Britain's ageing electricity grid also needs a major, costly upgrade, and there are ongoing debates about whether to allow more North Sea oil and gas drilling, including new fields such as Jackdaw.
These issues matter because they affect both the reliability of the power supply and the cost of household energy bills, which are regulated through a price cap set by the industry regulator, Ofgem. Government policy on reaching "Net Zero" emissions, energy company decisions, and international events all feed into a debate about how best to balance a secure, affordable energy supply with long-term climate commitments.
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