Labour back on top in polls after Burnham’s Brexit pledge
Labour moved ahead of Reform UK in an Opinium poll after Andy Burnham’s conference announcements, including a pledge to consider all options for Britain’s relationship with the EU. The findings suggest the Brexit proposal may have helped Labour’s standing and that voters are also receptive to Burnham’s plans on care and pensions.
Labour rose two points to 30 per cent, its highest rating since 2024, while Reform gained one point to 25 per cent. The Conservatives stood at 17 per cent, the Greens at 11 per cent and the Liberal Democrats at nine per cent. More than half of respondents supported considering all options on EU ties; 48 per cent backed a tax-funded National Care Service, while views on changing the pensions triple lock were more divided, particularly among over-65s.
- Labour leads Reform in the latest Opinium poll.
- Labour rose two points to 30 per cent.
- Most respondents backed considering all options on EU ties.
New here? Start with this
Brexit refers to the UK’s departure from the European Union, completed in 2020. Since then, governments have set the terms of the UK’s relationship with the EU, covering areas such as trade, travel and cooperation; changing those terms does not by itself mean rejoining the EU.
Andy Burnham is the Labour mayor of Greater Manchester and a senior figure in the party. A National Care Service would organise and fund care through public taxation, while the pensions triple lock is a rule that raises the state pension each year by whichever is highest: inflation, wage growth or 2.5 per cent.
Polls survey a sample of people to estimate how parties and proposals may fare among voters, so their results can vary between pollsters and over time. Care and pensions affect public spending and household finances, while debate over EU ties concerns the UK’s future relationship with a major trading partner.
Both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Considering a closer relationship with the EU, including options voters have not previously been asked to weigh, could give Britain greater access to markets and cooperation while allowing the public to judge the trade-offs. Supporters may also see a National Care Service as a fair way to meet rising care needs, and argue that reviewing pension guarantees could help keep public finances sustainable for future generations.
The case against
Critics may argue that reopening the question of EU ties risks renewed uncertainty and could unsettle businesses and voters who value the settlement reached after Brexit. They may also doubt that tax-funded care plans are affordable or deliverable, and see changes to the pensions triple lock as a threat to older people’s security, especially while living costs remain high.