Labour enters its Liverpool conference in a more optimistic mood after Andy Burnham replaced Keir Starmer as leader and prime minister. Rather than discussing whether Burnham might seek the leadership, MPs are now debating whether he could call an early general election, despite his public insistence that the idea is “stone dead”.

The main calculation is whether Labour’s improved polling reflects a lasting recovery, particularly as Reform has slipped behind Labour in some surveys, or whether Reform could regain support in vulnerable “red wall” seats. A strong result in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election could influence the decision, although ministers acknowledge the risks of relying on narrow margins and tactical voting. Labour MPs also credit Burnham with improving the party’s communication and morale, contrasting this with what they see as Starmer’s ineffective presentation of policies such as winter-fuel and welfare changes.