# Tories estimate revised settlement plans could add £5.2bn to annual welfare bill

- URL: https://talkfuse.com/story/labours-immigration-u-turn-to-cost-the-british-taxpayer-an-extra-5billion-a-year-as-up-to-450000-foreign-nationals-expected-to-sign-up-for-benefits-conservatives-warn/
- Published: 2026-11-04T22:00:46+00:00
- Updated: 2026-11-04T22:18:01+00:00
- Original publisher: Daily Mail (publisher lean: Right)
- Original article: https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-16265871/Labours-immigration-U-turn-cost-taxpayer-extra-5billion-year.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490
- Topics: UK, World

## Key points

- Conservatives forecast a £5.2 billion annual welfare cost by 2030-31.
- Their estimate assumes about 446,000 additional universal credit claimants.
- The government says the calculation assumes no change to the current system.

## Summary

The Conservatives say Labour’s revised settlement plans could add £5.2 billion a year to welfare spending by 2030-31. The estimate centres on a change to Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s proposals after opposition from Labour MPs: many migrants will keep a five-year route to settlement and access to benefits.

The Conservatives estimate that 1.4 million of the 1.9 million foreign nationals expected to qualify for settlement by 2030 will remain on that route, while 500,000 will wait longer. Applying the current universal credit claimant rate for non-EU citizens with indefinite leave to remain, just under 32 per cent, to the 1.4 million group gives an estimated 446,352 claimants. At an average annual payment of £11,694, the party calculates a £5.2 billion yearly cost; the government disputes the analysis, saying it assumes the current system will continue unchanged.

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Summarised by TalkFuse (https://talkfuse.com/). Quote the original publisher for the reporting and link this page for the summary and discussion.