The Met Office has warned that autumn 2023 is more likely to be wetter and windier than average across the UK, raising the risk of flooding, as El Niño conditions in the Pacific approach near-record strength. The forecaster said the chances of a warm, wet autumn are one-and-a-half to two times higher than normal, though it stressed that El Niño is only one of several factors shaping UK weather and does not guarantee severe impacts. Despite the wetter outlook, hosepipe bans affecting millions of customers are expected to persist for months, underlining how deep the current drought runs even as rainfall increases.

Anglian Water, which supplies seven million customers across eastern England, said restrictions could remain until winter, while Thames Water expects its ban on London and surrounding areas to last until "towards the end of the year," citing huge demand on top of normal supplies. The Environment Agency reported that almost three-quarters of England remains in drought, England's third such event in five years, despite greener grass following recent rain. Met Office chief meteorologist Ian Lisk said forecasts point to an increased likelihood of wetter-than-average conditions consistent with historical El Niño patterns, but cautioned that even one of the strongest El Niño events on record would not automatically mean more severe impacts for the UK.