# Midterm Elections: Americans Have Wagered $1.9 Billion on Prediction Markets on U.S. Races — With Democrats Favored to Win House and Senate

- URL: https://talkfuse.com/story/midterm-elections-americans-have-wagered-1-9-billion-on-prediction-markets-on-u-s-races-with-democrats-favored-to-win-house-and-senate/
- Published: 2026-11-03T15:11:45+00:00
- Updated: 2026-11-03T15:18:37+00:00
- Original publisher: Variety
- Original article: https://variety.com/2026/digital/news/midterm-elections-odds-prediction-spending-house-and-senate-1236938339/
- Topics: Business, Elections, Government, Markets, Politics

## Key points

- Nearly $1.9 billion has been traded on midterm outcomes.
- Both markets favour Democrats in the House and Senate.
- The total trails Polymarket’s 2024 presidential election wagers.

## Summary

The 2026 US midterm elections are under way, with nearly $1.9 billion wagered on election outcomes across prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket by 8pm ET on 2 November. Their prices favour Democrats to win the Senate and take control of the House, offering a measure of traders’ expectations as voters decide control of Congress.

Kalshi accounted for about $1.3 billion in trading and Polymarket about $600 million. Polymarket put Democrats’ chances at 78% for the Senate and 95% for the House; Kalshi gave them 78% and 93.9%. Both platforms ban insider trading, and Polymarket said it had investigated dozens of midterm-related trades for possible insider trading or manipulation. The total is below the more than $3.6 billion wagered on Polymarket alone during the 2024 presidential race; about $3.9 billion is expected to be spent on adverts across the House and Senate contests.

## Coverage

- [Variety: Midterm Elections: Americans Have Wagered $1.9 Billion on Prediction Markets on U.S. Races — With Democrats Favored to Win House and Senate](https://variety.com/2026/digital/news/midterm-elections-odds-prediction-spending-house-and-senate-1236938339/)
- [The Hill: 96 percent chance Democrats take House, 78 percent for Senate: Harvard model](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6191266-harvard-forecasts-democrat-house-senate-majority/)

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Summarised by TalkFuse (https://talkfuse.com/). Quote the original publisher for the reporting and link this page for the summary and discussion.