‘Moana’ Faces Box Office Test, Less Than Two Years After Franchise’s Last Big Theatrical Splash
Disney's live-action adaptation of Moana, directed by Thomas Kail and starring Dwayne Johnson and Catherine Laga'aia, is preparing for its theatrical release across approximately 3,900 North American venues. Industry projections suggest a domestic opening between $60 and $65 million for the weekend, a decline from earlier predictions that had anticipated $75 million or higher. The timing is notably compressed compared to Disney's usual practice, arriving just over a year after the animated sequel Moana 2 achieved global blockbuster status with more than $1 billion in worldwide revenue.
The studio faces potential challenges from mixed critical reception—the film currently holds a 37 percent rating on Rotten Tomatoes—and uncertainty about whether audiences have experienced sufficient Moana content in recent months. With a substantial $250 million production budget, Disney requires sustained audience interest extending well beyond the opening weekend. Johnson has publicly defended the swift adaptation timeline, contending that the animated film's core themes translate effectively to live-action storytelling. The studio takes some encouragement from recent successes such as Lilo & Stitch, which opened to $146 million domestically in May 2025.
- Disney's live-action Moana opens this weekend targeting $60–65 million domestically, below earlier $75 million+ forecasts, featuring Dwayne Johnson and Catherine Laga'aia across 3,900 theatres.
- The film arrives roughly 20 months after the animated Moana 2 became a $1 billion global success, raising concerns about audience fatigue and franchise saturation.
- Critics have been mixed (37% on Rotten Tomatoes), and with a $250 million budget, the studio needs sustained box office legs to recoup costs.