A new "megapoll" by Electoral Calculus has found that Nigel Farage's Reform party would come only third if a UK general election were held immediately, marking a notable reversal from its previously strong position. The projection puts Labour on 217 seats and the Conservatives on 151, with Reform trailing on 127 — a blow to Farage's momentum and a sign of what analysts are calling a possible "Burnham bounce" for Labour.

The survey used the "gold standard" MRP method, accounted for tactical voting, and was based on Find Out Now data commissioned by communications agency PLMR. For the first time it included Rupert Lowe's new Restore Britain party, which appears to be drawing away some Reform support while itself winning only one seat. No party would be near a majority, and the most likely result is a "rainbow coalition" of Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens — with the Greens potentially jumping from four MPs to 30. Labour and Reform were level on overall vote share.