# Musk challenges NASA panel’s estimate of 22 launches for lunar landing

- URL: https://talkfuse.com/story/musk-disputes-nasa-safety-panels-lunar-launch-estimates/
- Published: 2026-10-23T12:29:00+00:00
- Updated: 2026-10-23T14:39:08+00:00
- Original publisher: The Register
- Original article: https://www.theregister.com/science/2026/10/23/musk-disputes-nasa-safety-panels-lunar-launch-estimates/5304961
- Topics: Americas, Space, Technology, World

## Key points

- Musk says Starship’s lunar mission may need six to eight launches.
- NASA’s safety panel cited an estimate of about 22.
- Falcon and Dragon retirements could reduce US ISS transport options.

## Summary

Elon Musk disputed estimates from NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel that about 22 launches could be needed to support a Starship lunar landing, saying SpaceX expects six to eight. The estimate matters because Artemis landers need propellant delivered and transferred in orbit before they can carry astronauts to the Moon, a capability that has yet to be demonstrated at the required scale.

The panel also praised Artemis II and NASA administrator Jared Isaacman, while warning that ending Falcon and Dragon operations could leave the agency with limited US options for crew access to the International Space Station and its planned deorbit. Boeing’s Starliner is now considered unlikely to launch before mid-January 2027, with its schedule still under review; cargo alternatives include Northrop Grumman’s Cygnus and Japan’s HTV-X. A written panel report is due early next year.

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Summarised by TalkFuse (https://talkfuse.com/). Quote the original publisher for the reporting and link this page for the summary and discussion.