Oil prices surge as Houthis seize Red Sea port amid growing fears Iran-backed rebels will paralyse supply route vital for the West
Oil prices jumped on Thursday after Iran-backed Houthi rebels seized the Yemeni port city of Mokha, tightening their grip on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the world's most critical shipping chokepoints. The advance raises fears that the rebels could paralyse a second major oil transit route alongside the already effectively closed Strait of Hormuz, handing Iran further leverage in its ongoing war with the United States and complicating President Trump's efforts to find an exit before the November midterms.
Brent crude rose as much as 4 per cent to above $105 a barrel, while the US average diesel price topped $6 a gallon for the first time, according to GasBuddy. Yemeni government forces are retreating south to Dhubab, opposite Perim Island, as the Houthis push towards full control of the strait, with the UN's Yemen envoy warning of a "new and more dangerous phase" in the conflict. The US accused the Houthis of acting as "agents and tools of Iran", while Tehran denied controlling the group; Reuters sources said the advance came with direct guidance from Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, and Pakistan has relayed a Saudi warning urging Iran to rein in the rebels.
- Houthis capture Yemen's Mokha port, threatening Red Sea shipping route
- Brent crude jumps 4%, US diesel prices top $6 a gallon
- UN, US warn of escalating crisis; Iran denies controlling Houthi forces
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Oil supplies from the Middle East usually reach the West by ship, and a lot of that traffic squeezes through narrow sea passages controlled by whoever holds the surrounding coastline. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, is one of these, sitting alongside the Red Sea route that connects Gulf oil producers to Europe and beyond. Any threat to it tends to unsettle oil markets, because tankers may be forced onto longer, costlier detours.
The Houthis are an armed group based in Yemen that has controlled large parts of the country since a civil war broke out there in the mid-2010s. They are widely reported to receive backing from Iran, though Iran denies directing their actions. The group has previously attacked shipping in the region, and its expansion along the Yemeni coast feeds concern that it could restrict movement through the strait.
This matters because Iran is separately engaged in a wider confrontation with the United States, and the Strait of Hormuz, another vital oil chokepoint near Iran, has already been effectively closed. A second blocked route would add further pressure on global oil and fuel prices and give Iran additional leverage in its dealings with Washington, at a time when the US is trying to manage the situation ahead of elections in November.
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The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Advocates of a firm, security-first response argue that the Houthi seizure of Mokha and their tightening grip on Bab el-Mandeb represent a direct escalation by an Iran-aligned force against a shipping route vital to global energy supplies, and that failing to respond robustly, through naval deployments, sanctions or support for Yemeni government forces, would embolden Tehran and normalise the use of proxy warfare to hold the world economy hostage. They contend that safeguarding freedom of navigation is a core strategic interest worth real cost, particularly as fuel prices already squeeze households and businesses, and that decisive action now is cheaper than the consequences of inaction later.
The case against
Those urging restraint argue that deeper military entanglement risks drawing the United States further into a costly and open-ended Middle Eastern conflict at a moment when public appetite for foreign wars is limited, especially ahead of the midterms, and that Yemen's civil war has deep local roots that cannot be solved by force alone. They contend that escalation could provoke wider retaliation and further destabilise the region, and that a more sustainable path lies in diplomatic pressure, working through regional partners such as Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, and, where possible, indirect engagement with Iran to restore safe passage without prolonging bloodshed or risking a broader war.